Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary June 11, 2018

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Strength in consumer stocks led markets higher last week. The S&P 500 rose 1.6%. The global MSCI ACWI increased 1.2%, and the Bloomberg BarCap Aggregate Bond Index edged 0.2% lower.

Key points for the week

  • G7 summit reinforces concerns over trade.
  • The Fed is likely to raise rates on Wednesday.
  • Expect some positive announcements from the Trump-Kim summit.

Meetings

Meetings will be a central topic for investors this week. The G7 meeting ended with acrimony as the U.S. communicated its desire for trade agreements more beneficial to U.S. firms. While much of the posturing was for the purpose of negotiation, the meeting signaled trade risks continue to increase. Our expectations remain for renegotiations to produce moderate benefits for the U.S. as many other countries have more to lose.

On Tuesday, President Trump and President Kim, of North Korea, will meet for a summit in Singapore. We do not expect a full-blown nuclear disarmament deal to be announced, but we hold out hope for some progress on lowering the number of North Korea’s weapons. Lacking astounding news on the nuclear front, an announcement officially ending the Korea war would be a positive.

The Federal Reserve meets Wednesday. As the nearby chart shows, the Fed has steadily hiked rates at its recent meetings. Most market watchers expects another hike of 25 points. More attention will be paid to the press conference language regarding the Fed’s outlook on the economy and whether it will raise rates once more or twice this year.

 

 

Source: Department of Commerce, Carson Group Partners.


Fun story of the week

DC deputy mayor writes tardy note for joyous Capitals fans

The Washington Capitals won the first Stanley Cup in team history on Thursday night. As the city celebrated, the deputy mayor tweeted out a tongue-in-cheek tardy note signed by the DC government for fans to fill out and present to their employers. The note stated the employee stayed out past a reasonable hour celebrating the victory and to please excuse their lateness. The deputy mayor also added a P.S. stating the employee will be taking a sick day the following week to attend the victory parade.


 

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